Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Enbridge expects an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on the rate base of its gas utility acquisitions through 2027, with potential upside from data center growth, leading to higher growth opportunities not included in current forecasts.
- Successful settlement on the Texas Eastern Pipeline rate case secures a 6% rate increase effective October 2024, and an additional 2.75% increase in 2026, ensuring fair returns and contributing to earnings growth.
- Record exports at the Ingleside export facility, which is the #1 market share terminal in the U.S., position Enbridge to capture increasing Permian volumes, strengthening its competitive position and boosting future revenues.
- Regulatory uncertainty in Ohio could impact Enbridge's earnings from its gas utility acquisition, as the staff report in the ongoing rate case differs from the company's initial rate application, and settlement negotiations are expected to take several months, introducing risk of a less favorable outcome.
- Near-term risk of production shut-ins due to forest fires could negatively affect Mainline volumes and basin production, potentially reducing Enbridge's revenues from its pipeline systems. While negligible impact has been seen so far, active fires remain a present risk through August and September.
- Long-term political risk regarding producers' need for pipeline capacity post-2026, particularly in relation to climate policies and carbon pricing in Canada, could affect demand for Enbridge's pipeline expansions. Uncertainty around federal elections and carbon policies might delay producer investments, impacting Enbridge's growth prospects.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA Guidance | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $17.7 billion to $18.3 billion | no prior guidance |
DCF per Share Guidance | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | $5.40 to $5.80 per share | no prior guidance |
EBITDA Growth | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 7% to 9% | no prior guidance |
EPS Growth | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 4% to 6% | no prior guidance |
DCF per Share Growth | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | approximately 3% per year | no prior guidance |
Mainline Volume Guidance | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 3.0 million barrels per day | no prior guidance |
Leverage Guidance | FY 2024 | 4.5x to 5x | 4.5x to 5.0x | no change |
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Guidance and DCF per Share
Q: Any changes to guidance and DCF per share?
A: The new guidance layers in the utilities, adding their partial year EBITDA and financing impacts. We're confident in the upper part of the EBITDA guidance and expect to be in the midpoint of our new DCF guidance range, even with all the prefunding. -
Mainline Outlook and Expansion Plans
Q: What's the Mainline outlook and plans for expansion?
A: The Mainline is performing well, expecting to exceed the 3.0 million barrels per day full-year guidance. We're designing an expansion for late '26-'27, adding about 150,000 barrels per day, which is capital-efficient and expected to be executable and economic. -
U.S. Gas Utility Integration and Growth
Q: What's the focus after U.S. gas utility acquisitions?
A: We're smoothly integrating the utilities, with strong growth prospects. Ontario is adding 40,000 customers annually, Utah has 5% population growth through '28, attracting over 20,000 customers a year. We anticipate an 8% CAGR on the rate base through '27, not including potential data center upside. -
Financing Strategy and Asset Sales Outlook
Q: Why use ATM over asset sales, and any future sales?
A: We moved quickly to finance the utility acquisitions via ATM due to better-than-expected deal economics. The ATM is now terminated. Asset sales are still considered but nothing near term; any significant sales would be for a great price. -
Blackcomb Pipeline and Permian Strategy
Q: Why was Blackcomb the winning project in the Permian?
A: Our JV's strong track record and ability to execute intrastate pipelines quickly led to Blackcomb's success, set to complete in second half of '26. We're well-positioned in the Permian with significant infrastructure, expecting continued growth and investments. -
Data Center Investment Opportunities
Q: Which segments offer the best data center opportunities?
A: Gas Distribution and Storage is immediate, with a recent 50-megawatt project announced. Gas Transmission has 600-700 million cubic feet per day of capacity requests, much driven by data centers. All segments present strong returns; we allocate capital based on risk-adjusted returns and offtaker quality. -
Ingleside's Competitive Position
Q: How is Ingleside positioned amid Gulf Coast competition?
A: Ingleside is the #1 market share terminal in the U.S., having moved 3 billion barrels to date. With another 1 million barrels per day of Permian volume coming, we expect to capture our share. We believe we can compete well with potential new terminals. -
Other Liquids Systems Performance
Q: Is strong performance from other systems sustainable?
A: Yes, assets like Express-Platte and the Bakken system are performing well, with business good across Canada, the Bakken, and the Permian. We expect this strong performance to continue. -
Mainline ROE Collar
Q: How much headroom remains in the Mainline ROE collar?
A: We're just above the midpoint of the ROE collar in 2024, slightly higher in 2025, and approaching the top in '26. The system is working as intended, moving high volumes while keeping attractive economics for customers. -
Impact of Forest Fires on Mainline
Q: Any risks to Mainline from forest fires?
A: Forest fires pose a risk but have had negligible impact so far. We're closely monitoring and coordinating with producers, and expect to maintain strong volumes for the year. -
Ohio Rate Case Settlement
Q: Outlook on Ohio rate case settlement?
A: We expect to reach a settlement with the Ohio PUC that provides a fair return, aligning with our transaction model. We're confident final determination will conclude within several months. -
Strategic Priorities and Capital Allocation
Q: What are your top strategic priorities?
A: First, maximize returns from base assets. Second, integrate acquired utilities and explore new opportunities. Third, execute $25 billion in projects, focusing on power and gas while maintaining leverage between 4.5x and 5x. -
LDC CapEx and Data Centers
Q: How does data center demand affect LDC CapEx?
A: It's too early to adjust the $1.7-$2 billion per year LDC CapEx guidance, but there's an upward bias due to data center demand, which is considered upside not in our current model. -
Indigenous Partnerships
Q: Are you pursuing partnerships with Indigenous groups?
A: Yes, we're actively exploring opportunities, including recent filings with the CER for projects in British Columbia. Economic participation is a key part of our Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan. -
M&A Outlook Post Acquisitions
Q: Will you pursue more M&A near term?
A: While we always consider M&A, we don't foresee transactions of similar size to the utility acquisition. Future deals would likely be smaller, tuck-in opportunities. -
Data Centers in Ontario
Q: Any data center opportunities in Ontario?
A: Yes, there's significant interest in the Greater Toronto Area, with opportunities for behind-the-meter support via our gas distribution system, similar to growth seen in the greenhouse sector over the past 20 years. -
TEPCO Rate Case Impact
Q: Key drivers of TEPCO rate case and EBITDA uplift?
A: The settlement results in a 6% rate increase in October and an additional 2.75% in January 2026, positioning us to continue earning a fair return into the future. -
Maintenance CapEx and Taxes
Q: Any incremental taxes from acquisitions?
A: No meaningful cash taxes from the transactions. Maintenance capital will increase slightly in the second half as we include full contributions from the acquired utilities. -
WhiteWater JV and Operations
Q: Do you plan to operate the WhiteWater JV assets?
A: We're pleased with our 19% stake in WhiteWater, including the Whistler pipeline. We see future growth opportunities but are happy working with our partners as a minority interest. -
Base Business Performance
Q: Have you adjusted other businesses in guidance?
A: No, the increase in guidance is solely based on layering in the utilities. Base businesses are performing very well; if considering them alone, we'd be at the upper end of the range.
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